Maryland women’s basketball heads to the Big Ten tournament with lots on the line.
After finishing with a .500 regular season conference record, a 12-year streak of making the NCAA tournament is likely dependent on how Maryland plays in Minneapolis.
Multiple bracketology projections have the Terps slotted into the 68-team field. Mark Schindler, a women’s basketball bracketologist for The Athletic, said the Terps’ conference tournament performance will greatly impact where they land.
Brenda Frese’s team has played the eighth hardest schedule in the country and is undefeated against non-Quad 1 opponents. The Terps are also No. 35 in NET rankings.
But Maryland holds a 3-12 record against Quad 1 opponents. Their best win is against Penn State, ranked No. 26 in the NET. Maryland has lost by an average of 17.22 points against top-25 opponents.
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“As much as I appreciate the strength of schedule, I think how you lose matters just as much as who you’re losing to,” Schindler said.
The Terps’ first Big Ten tournament matchup is against Illinois on Thursday. Maryland would likely miss the tournament if it fell in the first round to Illinois, according to Schindler.
Maryland won by an average of 12 points in the two teams’ previous matchups this season. The Fighting Illini have a slim chance at making the NCAA tournament, Schindler said.
If the Terps win their first contest, they will take on No. 1-seeded Ohio State on Friday. The Buckeyes concluded their season with a loss at No. 6 Iowa. Before that, they won 15 straight games, including two victories over Maryland.
NBC bracketologist Aidan Berg said a win or a close loss against Ohio State would boost Maryland’s resume greatly. He currently projects the Terps as a 10 seed.
A deep conference tournament run could advance the Terps all the way to an eight or nine seed, Berg said. But a win against Ohio State seems unlikely, he said, given Maryland’s history with ranked opponents this year.
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A 1-1 showing in the conference tournament would leave the Terps’ record at 18-13. Their overall resume is why Schindler doesn’t believe Maryland could rise beyond a nine seed, even if it went on an extensive run in the conference tournament.
“It’s great that they were able to have some close showings against [teams] like Iowa,” Schindler said. “But being able to pick up a game against one of those top three teams in the conference would have gone a long way.”
Other teams will also have an impact on Maryland’s seeding. Arizona, Michigan, Auburn and Mississippi State’s performances in their respective conference tournaments are important to the Terps’ prospects, Schindler said.
But Maryland controls its own destiny.
It has a strong chance to make the NCAA tournament if it wins its first two games in Minneapolis. Frese’s teams have won five Big Ten tournaments, performing well historically throughout the week.
Another strong showing is critical for Maryland’s season to continue.
