By Eli Cohen and Harrison Rich

Last updated March 1 at 11 p.m.

No. 16 Maryland men’s basketball (22-7, 12-6 Big Ten) picked up its fifth win in six games against Penn State on Saturday in State College, 68-64. It was a nice bounce-back for the Terps after suffering a heartbreaking loss to No. 8 Michigan State last Wednesday.

Maryland travels to No. 15 Michigan on Wednesday for its final road game of the season. It’ll have significant Big Ten implications with the Terps trailing the Wolverines by three games with two contests left.

To see where the Terps stand, check back here for regular updates on March Madness seeding, the Big Ten race and what the analytics say about coach Kevin Willard’s team.

Bracketology

The Terps could very well earn their highest seed in nearly a decade. They haven’t advanced past the second round of the tournament since 2016.

[Jordan Geronimo ignites Maryland men’s basketball despite his limited role]

The Big Ten race

The race for the conference title is heating up.

Maryland is in a three-way tie for third place with Purdue and Wisconsin. Each team has two more games on its schedule.

If the Terps split their last two games against Michigan and Northwestern, they’d need Wisconsin to lose once or Purdue to lose twice to get the No. 4 seed. If they win both, they automatically earn a top-four spot.

Getting one of those coveted seeds would give the Terps a double-bye in the Big Ten tournament. Their loss to the Spartans essentially ended their hopes to win the conference.

The analytics

While the March Madness selection committee looks at both resume and predictive metrics, the Terps being higher on the latter will likely make them a trendy pick to outperform their seed.

The trapezoid of excellence is one metric that suggests Maryland has the potential to make a deep run. The trapezoid includes teams with the highest adjusted NET rating and a pace that isn’t too slow or fast — although as the NET rating increases, the range of pace widens.

Ryan Hammer, a sports content creator who introduced the metric, explained that a team’s pace versatility is crucial because it lets them play against any opponents’ play style.

The Terps’ prowess on both sides of the ball is another reason many predict their high success. They held a top-20 offense and defense for much of the conference season, but two low-scoring games in a row has Maryland down to the No. 28 offense, according to KenPom.

Maryland’s Quad breakdown:

Quadrant 1: 6-6, Quadrant 2: 5-1, Quadrant 3: 3-0, Quadrant 4: 8-0

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