Patrick Emilien says Maryland men’s basketball receives a “jolt of energy” when they play at Xfinity Center. Without the jolt, the Terps have been punished.
With another road loss against Ohio State on Wednesday, Kevin Willard’s squad dropped to a 2-8 away mark — a record that doesn’t correlate with the team’s 16-1 record at home, including hallmark wins like their upset of conference leader No. 5 Purdue or No. 15 ranked Indiana.
Maryland’s road record this year is currently worse than last season’s 3-7 mark recorded amid the turmoil of a head-coaching change, and is its most away losses since the 2017-18 season.
Three days after the Terps took down Purdue, Maryland lost in overtime to Nebraska despite beating the Cornhuskers at home by nearly 20 points a few weeks before.
Another example is the Terps’ 1-1 mark against Michigan this season. In its first game in Ann Arbor, Maryland imploded, surrendering 32 points to Hunter Dickinson as Willard decided to bench his starters at half with a 31-point deficit staring them in the face.
A few weeks after, Maryland held Dickinson under 20 points as the Terps beat the Wolverines, 64-58, at home with Jahmir Young scoring 26. Young only scored five points in the road match.
“The crowds affected us,” Willard said. “When teams are going on runs we’re rushing on offense.”
Maryland’s offensive efficiency splits, an estimation of points scored per 100 possessions, are staggering. The Terps score an average of 116.9 points per 100 possessions at home against 95.7 on the road. That’s nearly a 21-point difference.
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The Terps’ defensive efficiency splits between home and away only show about a three-point difference in points given up per 100 possessions, meaning that Maryland’s road troubles appear to be relegated to the offensive side of the ball.
Other teams have taken notice.
Northwestern coach Chris Collins said that he primarily focused on watching Maryland’s home games, because he knew “that’s who we were going to face.”
“I can’t explain it because I think they’re really good but obviously they feed off the energy of this crowd…the press is a little bit more effective at home, their activity, shooting.”
Collins noted that it was generally hard to win on the road in the Big Ten, something that Willard has spoken to as well.
Part of Maryland’s struggles scoring on the road has to do with a foul disparity as well.
“I don’t know what guys have to do to deserve a foul on the road,” Willard said. “For Jahmir Young to not shoot a free throw [against Ohio State] … that’s something that’s been a big part of our road problems is the free throw disparity has been crazy on the road.”
Free throw rate is a ratio of free throws attempted and field goals attempted. On average, Maryland has a plus-18 free-throw rate differential at home against a minus-15.77 mark on the road, meaning the Terps accrue 1.8 more free throws per 10 field goal attempts than opponents at home and 1.577 less per 10 field goal attempts on the road.
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The difference between the two marks accounts for about three free throws per 10 field-goal attempts.
Free throw rate has been an important predictor for the Terps’ success across the season. When Maryland manages a free throw rate higher than 30, it is 14-2. In a majority of the Terps’ away games, they have not been able to garner a mark better than 30.
For players like Young, who has one of the highest marks in free throw rate in the Big Ten, drawing fouls is important. He averages about four free-throw makes a game, but attempted none at Ohio State and none in Maryland’s first game at Michigan earlier this season — his only two games without an attempt.
Maryland’s personal foul differential at home vs away in the last 60 games is the tenth largest difference in the nation with 4.8 less fouls called on them at home compared to the road. That plays a part in the wide free-throw rate differential as well.
The Terps will play their last true road game of the season when they square off against Penn State on Sunday.
