By the time the Screen Actors Guild Awards were held Sunday, many award show observers already had an idea of who and what will win at the Academy Awards. However, Sunday’s awards threw a series of curveballs into the race with many unexpected actors taking home awards.

With the Academy Awards airing March 12, it’s now time to make final predictions on the closely watched categories. For my list, I’ll be mainly referencing general industry and guild awards ceremonies that serve as a precursor for what’s to come at the ceremony. This includes the SAG Awards, the British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards, the Golden Globe Awards, the Venice Film Festival and Critics’ Choice Awards. 

Best Picture: Everything Everywhere All at Once 

The best picture race earlier this year was anyone’s game. The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin were early favorites with their respective wins in the drama and musical/comedy categories at the Golden Globes. But, Fabelmans lost traction as the season continued, failing to take home big prizes at the later industry awards. 

While The Banshees of Inisherin took home top prizes at the BAFTA Awards, the film hasn’t been as successful in other general categories. 

The A24 film Everything Everywhere All at Once has been at the forefront of the best picture race since its earliest rave reviews. After sweeping the SAG Awards with an incredible four wins, it has now established itself as the frontrunner. The main cast has also dominated various acting categories while the film’s directors Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert are favorites for best director, giving the film the edge it needs for the top prize. 

[Review: ‘Cocaine Bear’ delivered campy comedy, but some of its plot wasn’t up to snuff]

Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh

Despite the whirlwind controversy surrounding the best actress category, the race is now narrowed down between two powerhouses: Cate Blanchett for Tár and Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All at Once. 

Both women won at the Golden Globes for best actress, with Blanchett in the drama category and Yeoh in the musical/comedy category. Blanchett was also awarded the Volpi Cup for Best Actress at the Venice Film Festival and best actress at the BAFTA Awards, while Yeoh took home the best actress at the SAG Awards, throwing the race into further contention. 

Although Blanchett has been on a winning spree, the majority of the actors who are voting members of the academy are members of the SAG union, bettering Yeoh’s chances.

Best Actor: Austin Butler

It’s been a closely watched race between Brendan Fraser for The Whale, Austin Butler for Elvis and Colin Farrell for The Banshees of Inisherin. Despite Fraser’s SAG Awards win, I believe  the odds remain in Butler’s favor. 

Alongside a Golden Globes win, which Fraser doesn’t have, Butler inserted himself into the top spot after triumphing at the BAFTA Awards, which otherwise favored European films, such as The Banshees of Inisherin and All Quiet on the Western Front. Furthermore, the academy has shown a strong liking for biographical performances, with three out of the last five winners for best actor having portrayed a real person. 

Best Supporting Actress: Angela Bassett

Best Supporting Actress still seems to be very up in the air. Just to be nominated for best supporting actress for her role in the Marvel Studios film Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is a considerable feat. However, Bassett hasn’t been successful at the recent industry awards, losing to Kerry Condon at the BAFTA Awards and Jamie Lee Curtis at the SAG Awards, despite winning at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards.

At this point, an Oscar for Bassett would be an achievement award from the academy, and an apology for its egregious What’s Love Got to Do with It snub for her portrayal of Tina Turner. The lack of a clear winner from both large industry awards further leaves her the opportunity to take the prize. 

Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan

The various accolades for Quan have been a reprieve from the prediction stress this season. Every possible award under the sun — aside from Barry Keoghan’s win at the BAFTA Awards — has gone to Quan, making him the undisputed frontrunner for best supporting actor.