It certainly feels like technology is growing faster than we can handle. Social media networks such as Twitter, Facebook and Snapchat have, in a decade, conquered human communication. Many Americans control their finances, communications and leisure on one device. A pair of free-thinking innovators working in Silicon Valley promise that, soon, everyone will be able to upload their consciousness to the internet. The singularity — when technological growth will update itself so fast that human beings will need to transform into cyborgs just to keep up — must be right around the corner.
For those unwilling to accept their mechanical overlords, there’s good news: the robots aren’t coming just yet. The narrative of overwhelming growth, driven by hyperventilating news reporters and self-aggrandizing CEOs from Palo Alto, is not reflected in the economic data. Broadly, 21st century tech innovation has been a flop.
Technological innovation has a principal economic purpose: to make workers more productive. When technology improves, a steady workforce produces more economic output. More economic output means more wealth. With the help of progressive economic policy, wealth can be shared among workers. Shared prosperity can reduce poverty, stretch life expectancy and improve quality of life.
From 1870 to 1970, the United States experienced unprecedented technological change. Electrification swept the nation. Americans replaced equine transport with speedy and efficient automobiles. Human beings figured out how to fly. Industry harnessed new forms of energy to develop modern infrastructure. Medical advancements drastically increased average lifespan. Economic growth soared during this period. Historian Angus Maddison predicted that, from the first year of the Common Era to 1820, annual gross domestic product growth in the west was 0.06 percent. In 1950, the American GDP expanded by 8.7 percent. America became very, very rich thanks to technological innovation. Progressive tax policies, coupled with the development of a welfare state, ensured a fairly equal distribution of those riches.
But something happened in the early 1970s. Economist Robert Gordon observes that growth in total factor productivity, an economic measurement of productivity caused by technological innovation, has dropped off during the past four decades. Tech simply isn’t improving worker productivity in the way it used to. Ezra Klein explains that while technology has drastically changed the way Americans entertain themselves, it has had middling effects on how we work. This technological slowdown has made Americans poorer. According to the 2015 Economic Report of the President, average household income would be $30,000 more today if productivity growth increased at its 1948-1973 pace.
Yet, Silicon Valley folks seem convinced they are rapidly making the world a better place. They flatter themselves. Silicon Valley has no doubt reshaped the human experience, but its impact is contained to recreation. The modern tech industry is very good at creating habit-forming leisure products. In the 20th century, technology developed the modern economy and created previously unthinkable sums of wealth. Twenty-first century technology inspires brief and addictive dopamine rushes. The 20th century gave us the automobile, electrification and life-saving medicine. The 21st century has Facebook.
Even the most promising features of modern technology have been disappointing. One would expect the internet to make industry smarter, faster and more productive. But, other than a brief uptick in productivity during the turn of the century, the macroeconomic impact of the internet has been invisible. Social media pledged to push global politics toward democracy and transparency. Instead, it has inspired failed revolutions (the Arab Spring) and budding autocrats (Donald Trump).
This criticism isn’t meant to suggest that the tech industry is intellectually lacking. Silicon Valley is suffering from misplaced talent. Talented engineers devote themselves to insipid app development instead of tackling substantial economic problems. Silicon Valley seems to value activating and maintaining addictions more than creating a more efficient economy. Applied broadly, the values of modern tech culture might as well encourage a brilliant chemist to research methamphetamine development instead of cancer treatment.
In a time when many Americans are struggling to get ahead, a productivity boom could push them into economic comfort. The boom of the mid-20th century may not be replicable. But a Silicon Valley priority shift would meaningfully ease economic pain.
Max Foley-Keene is a freshman government and politics major. He can be reached at maxfkcap2016@gmail.com.
