“It was like a man still walking about the world unaware that he has contracted a fatal disease,” wrote H.G. Wells of the atmosphere in Great Britain in the days before the outbreak of World War I. It’s hard to blame the British for their shock because at the beginning of the 20th century, everything appeared to be going swimmingly. Britain was enjoying unparalleled wealth and technological growth. Europe’s great powers hadn’t clashed in a significant military conflict since 1815. Conventional wisdom held that, in an increasingly global economy, war was inconceivable. So, in the days before World War I, the people of Britain walked around in a daze, unaware that the world was on the brink of suicide.
In the aftermath of the recent election, many Americans are acting like the Britons of 1914. Well-meaning folks try to talk panicked progressives off the ledge. Sanguine posts grace liberal Facebook circles insisting that everything is going to be okay. Many of the leaders — former President Barack Obama among them — who frantically depicted the prospect of a Donald Trump presidency as an existential threat to the republic have been maddeningly calm since Nov. 8.
Faith in a peaceful future is both baseless and unhelpful. The post-World War II global order has rarely been less stable. Blindness in the face of threat isn’t a tool for survival; it’s a recipe for catastrophe.
Trump’s presidency has disastrous policy implications. A repeal of Obamacare will take away health insurance from millions of people and mass deportation will tear families apart. But those outcomes, while devastating, are within the normal bounds of American politics. The larger global hazard is far more frightening. The post-World War II order is weakening. Far-right nationalists rule Hungary and Poland. Britain’s exit from the European Union reveals the weakness of Europe as an economic and cultural stabilizer. A few years from now, nationalist parties may control both Germany and France.
Outside the West, China is exhibiting increasingly authoritarian tendencies. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s impudent power grabs in Eastern Europe have been met by little resistance from the West. His successful intelligence operation during the 2016 election could be replicated to defeat the few liberal Democrats left standing in Europe — including Angela Merkel. The Syrian civil war is transforming into a massive sectarian conflict between Shia and Sunni Islam, in which the power players are Iran, Russia and ISIS, among others. In the next couple of decades, climate disaster could become inevitable.
Meanwhile, the people of the most powerful nation on earth, in their wisdom, elected an easily-triggered and authoritarian infant to the presidency. President Trump’s success catalyzes the global breakdown of democratic stability. His disdain for NATO undermines one of the most important barriers to World War III. His apathy toward climate change escalates an existential threat to humanity. His lack of emotional stability, paired with his proclivity for nuclear proliferation, could have apocalyptic consequences.
Former President Barack Obama regularly tells the American people — citing Martin Luther King, Jr. — that “the arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice.” I’m not sure that the arc bends toward justice, but he’s certainly right that it’s long. On that arc, world orders rise and fall. Periods of chaos always interrupt periods of stability.
Post-World War II, humanity has enjoyed a period of unparalleled peace and prosperity: global poverty has declined dramatically, violence ends fewer lives prematurely and democracy has proliferated across the globe. But we cannot forget that this state of affairs is not natural. The liberal democratic order didn’t appear out of thin air. It was created through institutions such as the UN and NATO, and was maintained by a collective global commitment to democracy and stability.
If an era of peace and stability can be created and maintained, it can be disrupted and destroyed. After World War I, the international community created institutions, the League of Nations among them, to prevent another global catastrophe. Those institutions failed, bringing the world to the brink of fascist control. The institutions, laws and norms created after the second World War have lasted longer than those created after the first. But they aren’t immune to the same fate.
Catastrophic thinking doesn’t guarantee catastrophe. Trump could govern like Ronald Reagan with a zany Twitter account. Russia’s economic problems could be the death of Putin’s expansionist aims. ISIS could continue hemorrhaging territory. The rise of nationalism in Europe could be a blip.
But if Trump’s election teaches us anything, it should confirm that the range of possible outcomes in world affairs is much greater than previously imagined. This is not a drill. Basic values, like pluralism and political freedom, are vulnerable. The institutions that have thus far prevented World War III are unraveling. If defenders of liberal democracy lay down their arms — if they mimic the Britons of early 1914 — they will be trampled by the forces of nationalism, xenophobia and war. There is one clear way to lose a fight: by pretending it’s not happening.
Max Foley-Keene is a freshman government and politics major. He can be reached at maxfkcap2016@gmail.com.
