The Terrapins men’s basketball team is one game shy of the halfway point in its ACC schedule, but the Terps’ erratic play through 21 games this season has already severely hampered their preseason aspiration of qualifying for the NCAA tournament.
The Terps are 12-9, and they were No. 73 in the RPI as of Monday. ESPN.com’s Joe Lunardi doesn’t project the Terps, who have just one win against a team ranked in the RPI top 50 (Providence), to make the NCAA tournament, and he doesn’t even consider them to be on the bubble.
There have been positive moments in the Terps’ season. Their late November victory over a resurgent Providence team in the Virgin Islands clinched a Paradise Jam championship, and they showed promise in a three-game winning streak coinciding with guard Seth Allen’s return from injury.
But entering their game at Virginia Tech tomorrow, the Terps have struggled to sustain consistent production, leading to losses against Oregon State, Boston University and N.C. State that have left a significant stain on their postseason resume.
“It’s tested all our patience,” coach Mark Turgeon said Tuesday afternoon, a day before the team’s 74-71 win over Miami. “We don’t like where we are.”
As Allen, the team’s starting point guard, sat out the first 12 games of the season, the Terps fell short in several chances to earn a resume-boosting win. Guard Dez Wells rimmed out a potential game-winning shot in a 78-77 season-opening loss to Connecticut (No. 38 in RPI), a team positioned to qualify for the NCAA tournament.
In December, the Terps came close to notching a win against George Washington (No. 34 in RPI), but Colonials guard Maurice Creek hit a jumper with less than a second remaining to hand Turgeon’s team a 77-75 defeat.
So the Terps’ most impressive win to date is against Providence (No. 43 in RPI). Their second-best win came Wednesday against Miami (No. 88 in RPI), and the Terps are 2-8 when facing opponents ranked in the RPI top 100.
The Terps’ inability to polish off an impressive victory has been compounded by three losses to teams outside the RPI’s top 50.
“It’s been a weird year up to this point, but it is fixable,” Turgeon said last week. “We just have to be more committed to what we’re trying to do as a staff and as players.”
Still, the Terps do have opportunities to improve their RPI in their final 10 games. They play at No. 17 Duke on Feb. 15 and then host No. 2 Syracuse nine days later, providing a couple of chances to earn wins against teams positioned for high seeds in the NCAA tournament. The Blue Devils and Orange are ranked No. 16 and No. 6 in the RPI, respectively.
The Terps also play a solid Virginia team (No. 22 in RPI) twice in the final four weeks of the regular season, and they could see more quality opponents in the ACC tournament.
But the Terps’ disappointing performance early in the season has left little room for error.
“Every game from here on out is a must-win game for us,” forward Jake Layman said after the Terps’ 83-79 loss to Pittsburgh (No. 14 in RPI) on Saturday.
The Terps won their first game after that loss to the Panthers as Wells’ game-winning 3-pointer sank the Hurricanes and saved the team from another discouraging loss.
Even with Wednesday’s narrow win, though, the Terps’ trip to Blacksburg, Va., to face the Hokies (No. 203 in RPI) tomorrow carries plenty of significance. The team can’t afford another unsightly blemish on an already shaky postseason resume if it hopes to return to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2010.
“It’s been tough, point guard going down and just being where we are,” Turgeon said Tuesday. “You just keep trying to figure it out.”