It’s nearly impossible to know when an earthquake will strike, but university doctorate student Lisa Walsh is one step closer to predicting these natural disasters.

Walsh, a third-year doctorate student in active tectonics, uses computer simulations that show where fault lines lie relative to earthquake epicenters to understand how quakes distribute pressure throughout tectonic plates. Seismic pressure does not just disappear after an earthquake, Walsh said, and pinpointing the stress that earthquakes leave behind could help indicate the location of future rumbles.

“Earthquakes are very hard to predict, they aren’t like the weather,” Walsh said. “The stuff I’m working on gives some clues to places where we might expect a future earthquake in parts of Maryland, but we can’t say for certain.”

She will present her research to the Seismological Society of America and the American Geophysical Union later this semester.

Walsh exclusively focuses on Washington-area earthquakes, including the Gaithersburg, Md., earthquake that struck July 16, 2010, as well as the Mineral, Va., quake Aug. 23 this year.

Earthquakes that affect the Washinton region are not everyday occurrences because unlike many West Coast localities, the area is not perched on a fault line. Walsh said she hopes to expand local earthquake knowledge.

“I’m hoping my research will be used in increasing our understanding of earthquakes on the East Coast,” Walsh said. “There isn’t a lot of data, and by studying them we can add to that base of knowledge.”

Walsh’s advisor Aaron Martin, a university geology professor, said studying earthquakes in areas that are not situated at the intersection of tectonic plates is as important as studying those near fault lines.

“The boundaries are where we get most of the big earthquakes, but the ones that happen in the middle of the plates are much less understood,” Martin said. “That’s where Lisa’s research is trying to understand why they happen and how they happen.”

Walsh is still creating a model for this summer’s Mineral, Va., earthquake, but she has more complete data on the Gaithersburg, Md., quake, which she said led to an increased amount of tectonic stress in the center of the state around Columbia, Md. She noted that although there is a higher chance of future quakes stemming from this area, it is still difficult to actually predict when and where the next one will hit.

Walsh will begin presenting her findings on the Gaithersburg earthquake at the annual meeting of the Eastern Section of the Seismological Society of America on Oct. 17 and 18 at the University of Arkansas. Later this fall, she will travel to San Francisco to present at the American Geophysical Union’s yearly meeting from Dec. 5 to Dec. 9.

But her forthcoming speeches to thousands of high-profile scientists had humble beginnings.

Walsh grew a “love of the great outdoors” during her childhood in Texas, where she spent warm afternoons searching for prehistoric snails, fossils and bison teeth with friends. She pursued her interest in the natural world as an undergraduate at the University of North Carolina, Asheville, where she majored in environmental studies.

There, she discovered her passion for earthquakes during an earth science class, and eventually came to this university to earn a master’s degree in geology.

Now as a doctorate student, Walsh is working toward helping metropolitan residents prepare for future seismic activity, which she said is critical because of the amount of nuclear power plants on the East Coast.

According to Martin, cities can prepare for earthquakes on both domestic and public levels, but these precautions come with a cost.

“Having everybody do things to get ready is expensive, so any kind of decision about doing that at a policy level would be based off a long bunch of work where there is a consensus reached that this is something that is important,” Martin said. “And Lisa’s research is a step towards that.”

hicks@umdbk.com