The Terrapin women’s basketball team must wait a full week before brackets are announced for the upcoming NCAA tournament, but while the Terps are practicing, preparing themselves for whomever their next opponent may be, a little prognostication can’t hurt.
After a 27-5 season in the nation’s toughest conference, the Terps will undoubtedly garner a top-three seed, but as for how low that little number to the left of their name gets, and what region they will be playing in, there are still questions to be asked.
ESPN.com contributor Mechelle Voepel says the Terps will get either a two or three seed, while CollegeRPI.com’s Jerry Palm has them as the sixth-best team in the nation, which would earn them a two seed.
“It’s not like they have a bunch of bad losses,” said Palm, a college basketball analyst and bracket expert. “They are just the third banana behind Duke and North Carolina in the ACC.”
“I think Duke and Carolina are so good this year that I don’t see how it counts against them, not beating them,” Voepel said.
Even though four of the Terps’ five losses came against those two teams, most of their quality wins came earlier in the season. According to CollegeRPI.com as of Sunday, the Terps had seven wins over top 50 RPI teams, four of which are against top-25 teams.
The Terps can expect good treatment from the selection committee because of the fact that they return all key players from last season’s team. People are aware that they can win in the postseason.
“They say what happens last year doesn’t affect it,” Voepel said. “There is still a subjective aspect to the brackets, though. I don’t see how you could forget what happened last year.”
Last year, when the Terps ran the table and captured the NCAA title, they were the No. 2 seed in the Albuquerque region.
In this year’s tournament, the four regional sights are Greensboro, N.C.; Dayton, Ohio; Fresno, Calif.; and Dallas. No. 1-ranked Duke will likely be the top seed in Greensboro, while North Carolina will probably own that title for the Dayton region after winning the ACC tournament. Since the committee avoids pairing same-conference teams against each other in the same bracket, the Terps can plan on being in either Fresno or Dallas, with either Connecticut or Tennessee likely as the top team.
“It would terrify me to see Maryland in my bracket,” Voepel said. “I still think they are one of the most explosive teams in the country. I would hope that someone else took them out before I had to play them.”
The Terps had a chance to earn a No. 1 seed had they defeated North Carolina and then N.C. State in the ACC tournament. But with a loss to the Tar Heels and only one RPI top 50 win in the past 15 games, that is now not a realistic possibility.
But it was no problem for the Terps last year, when they were a No. 2 seed and knocked off two No. 1s in the final four. They were the third straight No. 2 seed to win a national championship.
“The difference between a one and a two is what color uniform you wear when you play each other,” Palm said.
Despite the misfortunes against the nation’s elite teams, coach Brenda Frese feels her team is battle-tested and ready to play, regardless of the Terps’ results this season.
“We played on the biggest stage last season as well as this season,” Frese said. “When you look at the best competition that we’re playing in our league – you look at any other conferences out there and they aren’t playing in these kind of battles with the top three teams in the top five.”
The Terps won’t sneak up on anybody as they did last year, but they also won’t be the popular pick to still be playing in April. The media attention will once again be focused on Duke, North Carolina and Tennessee because of the way those teams played in the regular season, but that is just how the Terps like it.
Still, the “experts” know not to count out the Terps. They remember well what happened last year in Boston.
“Right now, they are one of the best teams in the country,” Voepel said. “Even if they are a three seed, they are a threat to win it all.”
Contact reporter Mark Selig at mseligdbk@gmail.com.
