The Terrapins men’s basketball team ended a four-year drought last season when it earned a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. This season, the Terps appeared poised to build on that success. They were the No. 3 team in the preseason Associated Press poll.
The Terps’ national profile increased this offseason, and many experts tabbed the team as one of the favorites for the national title. But when the NCAA Tournament field is announced in less than three weeks, the Terps’ seeding will be roughly the same, said Patrick Stevens, The Washington Post‘s bracketologist. Every week, Stevens projects the NCAA Tournament field.
“I think you could bank on seeing Maryland in that three, four, five range,” Stevens said Tuesday. “Those are the most likely scenarios for them moving forward.”
The No. 10 Terps (23-5, 11-4 Big Ten) have three regular-season games left, including trips to No. 20 Purdue and No. 18 Indiana. Stevens has the Terps as a No. 4 seed currently, he said. In the latest mock brackets released Monday from ESPN and CBSSports.com, the Terps are a No. 3 seed.
The Big Ten Tournament in early March is another opportunity for the Terps to bolster their resume.
If the Terps win their remaining games and win the Big Ten Tournament in the process, they would be in the discussion for a No. 1 seed, Stevens said. But he doesn’t envision the Terps winning three consecutive games in the conference tournament.
“Realistically, it’s probably not a team that’s built particularly well to win three games in three days,” Stevens said. “A more realistic ceiling for Maryland, if, let’s say, it got hot here in the next couple weeks and made it to, say, the Big Ten final, is probably a 2-seed at this stage.”
Conversely, Stevens said, the Terps could drop to a No. 6 or 7 seed if they lose their final three regular-season games, including a home matchup with Illinois (12-15, 4-10), and their first game in the Big Ten Tournament.
The big blemish on the Terps’ resume is Thursday’s 68-63 loss to Minnesota, which was previously 0-13 in Big Ten play.
Out of the 16 teams in Stevens’ latest projected bracket that are No. 1 through No. 4 seeds, the Terps are the only team that has lost to a team with an RPI worse than 200 (Minnesota). RPI measures a team’s strength of schedule and their results against that schedule.
Before the loss to Minnesota, Stevens had the Terps as a No. 3 seed.
“That’s a bit of a black spot,” he said. “At the same time, it’s really the only real major negative that’s working against them right now.”
