The list is a long one: Chris Mihm. Joel Przybilla. DeSagana Diop. Nikoloz Tskitishvili. Darko Milicic. Robert Swift. Patrick O’Bryant. Greg Oden. Yi Jianlian. Hasheem Thabeet.
Alex Len.
There has been no shortage of NBA draft busts, failures and disappointments over the years. NBA teams often draft players on potential alone, and oftentimes that potential never materializes into professional success.
Those first 10 players are 7-foot-something lottery picks — drafted since 2000 — who scouts thought had the talent to be elite parts of NBA frontcourts. But despite their considerable upsides, poor play and injury forced most of them out of the league after short, mostly unsuccessful careers.
That 11th name — Len — could be among the next to join the list. The now-former Terrapins men’s basketball center said yesterday he will forgo his final two years of eligibility and enter the 2013 NBA draft. He’s a projected lottery pick — just like the physical 7-foot specimens before him.
But he shouldn’t be. Despite his talent and potential, Len has all the signs of an NBA draft bust.
Few mock drafts, if any, have Len falling outside the top 14 picks on June 27. And with his size, defensive prowess and ability to stretch the floor on offense, it’s no surprise he’s expected to come off the board that high.
Those skills only seem to exist on paper, though. It’s easy to say what the Ukrainian big man is good at, but it’s much harder to actually see it on the court. Len averaged just 11.9 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game in his sophomore season; relatively unimpressive numbers for a guy expected to sign a multimillion-dollar contract this summer.
Despite possessing improved post moves and a solid mid-range jumper, Len scored 15 points or fewer in 28 of the Terps’ 38 games this season, finishing with single-digit totals in nearly half of those contests. He’s 7-foot-1 and has the tools of a dynamic rebounder and rim protector, but he topped the 10-rebound mark only four times and blocked more than three shots in a game just six times.
Len finished the season ranked No. 5 in the ACC in rebounding, but he wasn’t among the league’s top 25 scorers. Len may have been the conference’s most talented player, but the All-ACC honorable mention member didn’t perform well enough to make the first, second or third teams.
Sure, Len did elevate his game when matched up against some of the nation’s most talented post players. He exploded for a career-high 23 points and 12 rebounds against potential No. 1 pick Nerlens Noel and then-No. 3 Kentucky in the Terps’ season opener, and he outmuscled ACC Player of the Year candidate Mason Plumlee in a win over then-No. 2 Duke, posting 19 points and nine boards.
That success against top competition should have translated into dominance over weaker foes. But instead, Len seemed to play down to the size of his opponents.
He scored merely four points against 6-foot-8 Ryan Anderson and 6-foot-7 Eddie Odio in a Feb. 19 loss at Boston College. He scored just 19 combined points in two losses against a Virginia lineup that featured no starter taller than 6-foot-8. And in three games against 6-foot-9 freshman Devin Thomas and lowly Wake Forest, Len averaged just 9.3 points.
Some might argue Len’s tendency to play up to the level of his opponents bodes well for his future of matching up against the NBA’s premier frontcourt stars. But based on his overall performance this season, those games against the Wildcats and the Blue Devils were outliers, not the norm.
Simply put, Len was not the dominant player he should have been for the Terps. Exactly 10 of the 20 7-foot lottery picks since 2000 played in college in the U.S., and those 10 players averaged a combined 16.5 points and 9.5 rebounds per game in their final collegiate seasons — more than four points and one rebound more than Len averaged this year.
All 10 of those players — including former NBA All-Stars Chris Kaman and Brook Lopez — averaged higher scoring totals than Len in their final college seasons, and nine of them grabbed more rebounds per game.
The numbers don’t tell the whole story, either. Despite his substantial frame, Len never looked as big on the court as he was in real life. He routinely allowed smaller defenders to push him off the block, routinely lost the ball in traffic and routinely settled for a fadeaway hook shot instead of going hard to the basket.
Coach Mark Turgeon said yesterday the NBA game will suit Len better than the college game did, and Len said he’s looking forward to not facing double and triple teams every time he touches the ball. The Ukraine native will turn 20 years old before the draft, so Turgeon is excited to see how much his former center will grow by the time he’s 23.
But unless Len can play more aggressively, use his immense physical talent and live up to his potential over the next four years, he might find himself struggling to get off the end of a team’s bench or, even worse, toiling away in the D-League.
ESPN NBA draft analyst Chad Ford said professional teams love Len’s size and offensive potential and covet his abilities as a rebounder and shot blocker. But questions remain about his inconsistency, and Ford said some are concerned about whether he is as aggressive and tough as he needs to be to excel at the next level.
If his sophomore season is any indication, he might not. So when future pundits talk about the biggest busts of the 2013 NBA draft, Len’s name could be the first one on the list.
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