My least favorite class in high school was statistics. Even the probability unit, which was the best part, seemed like a waste of time. I just could not think of when I would ever use it in real life. Sure, if I wanted to become a professional poker player or be the person who guesses which month you were born in at Six Flags, probability might come in handy. Short of that, I felt as if I would never really need to know how likely it was that a coin comes up heads five times in a row. I assumed that though many things in life can be described by probability, it would never really change my decisions. I know that I am more likely to be killed by a falling coconut than a shark – I’d still rather fight the coconut. Therefore, I am confused when told that probability should determine which decisions I make about my future.
The housing lottery – be it for dorms, Commons or Courtyards – works by randomly assigning a priority number to everyone interested. Excluding those who have lost housing points (usually due to alcohol-related violations, though the hooligans who throw things off their balconies are also justly punished), everyone in a particular priority group has the same chance to get the best or worst number. While this seems legitimate, these groups suddenly make the process much less fair. A student with a high priority number can “pull in” up to three friends, even if their priority numbers are lower than a large number of their peers’. Suddenly, instead of a random lottery determining where you can live, these students who have had a lower number than you can become a factor in your future housing. The lottery itself is random – the process is not.
Batman villain Two-Face, who got some (half) face time during the light-hearted rom-com The Dark Knight, establishes a very particular lifestyle. He suggests that the only form of true justice is pure chance – any choice can be determined by flipping a coin. However, this is not an accurate depiction of how decision-making should be executed. Asking a nickel to understand the nuances about a judgment you must make is like asking a bear not to shit in the woods – it will be confused and probably eat you.
Culturally, we have been told that anyone can beat the odds: Lehigh beat Duke, Jared lost 245 pounds with Subway and France won a war. With so many aspects of our world telling us those with low chances can prevail, it never seems far-fetched that one will succeed, despite the likelihoods. Although we think low odds will not bring us down, we are shocked when something does not go our way – despite promising odds. It is possible to apply to 10 jobs and not get any offers, practice for hours and still play terribly or crash into a glass door that you had successfully opened, walked through and closed just minutes before.
Probabilities simply tell us what is likely to happen – they show us correlation, not causation. It is foolish to do something (or not do something) because the odds say it will not work out. The only determinant of your actions should be deciding whether you would like to live with the consequences of your action or inaction. And if that isn’t enough, just go with flipping the coin. Nickels are great listeners.
Rajarshi Chattopadhyay is a sophomore aerospace engineering major. He can be reached at chattopadhyay@umdbk.com.
