SpringForecast
Despite Pennsylvania groundhog Punxsutawney Phil’s seeing his shadow Feb. 2 and this week’s below-freezing temperatures might suggest, College Park forecasts predict spring weather will arrive on schedule.
“I have always believed that he tells the truth,” Matt Greenberg, senior accounting and information systems major, said of the forecasting groundhog. “So yes, I was very disappointed in [Punxsutawney] Phil.”
The Climate Prediction Center’s long-term forecast model is predicting spring to arrive at a “normal time” with “normal temperatures and precipitation” this year. Thursday morning, the College Park-based branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast an average spring for the nation as a whole and the mid-Atlantic region.
Students at this university said they look forward to warmer weather after a week of snow and frozen-over sidewalks.
“I’m really excited about the weather getting warmer. I’m a little hesitant to say when it’s going to get warmer, but I am excited for it so I can go play on McKeldin Mall,” said Matt Kramer, a sophomore information systems and marketing major.
Normal temperatures and precipitation might seem hard to define for a place where shorts in January and winter coats in September are not unheard of, but there are specific conditions that are considered standard.
“Normal is defined as the three-months average temperature in any given location from 1981 to 2010, which is a 30-year normal period,” said Stephen Baxter, a doctoral candidate at this university and researcher at the Climate Prediction Center.
Beginning in March, temperatures increase to a 45-degree average with about 3.8 inches of rainfall, according to the U.S. Climate Data. In an average spring, April’s temperatures increase 10 degrees to 55 degrees, but by June those average temperatures will increase to highs of 84 degrees and lows of 64.
The variability in the prediction center’s spring forecast means the odds of a very cold or warmer than usual spring are equally likely, Baxter said.
“There is a lot of variability in these months,” Baxter said. “Variability seems to be the hallmark of the spring season.”
Other regions of the country can expect to see varying spring climates, according to the prediction center.
The West Coast can expect higher than average temperatures, with the Pacific Northwest experiencing a lower than average rainfall. The nation’s southwestern region is expected to get more rain than usual, especially in West Texas, New Mexico and Arizona. With a 50 to 60 percent change of El Niño patterns dominating the northern hemisphere in early spring, Florida can also expect higher than average rainfall, according to the prediction center.
The Southwest is predicted to experience colder than usual temperatures, Baxter said.
“As for the mid-Atlantic there’s no difference for the climate,” Baxter said. “The odds of a very cold or warm spring are not [higher than they are] any other times.”
