There are 11 swing states (gray) heading into tomorrow’s election, but President Obama is much closer to the needed 270 electoral votes than Mitt Romney. Although the candidates are in a dead heat in several polls, the election will come down to electoral votes rather than the popular vote.
President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney appear to be in a dead heat with just hours to go until Election Day, but Romney will have to see major upsets in several states to earn the 270 electoral votes needed to win, data indicates.
Although the popular vote — which measures the total number of votes for each candidate — indicates voters are almost evenly split between Obama and Romney, a state-by-state analysis of the Electoral College shows Obama with a sizable lead that will be difficult for Romney to overcome. And even if a candidate wins the popular vote, the electoral votes decide the winner. So far, Obama appears to have all but secured 201 electoral college votes compared to Romney’s 191, according to election tracking website 270towin.com.
As the electoral map sits now, 146 electoral votes are still up for grabs across 11 states: Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Nevada.
Most experts and political pundits predict Obama will win the Electoral College. In some of the most critical battleground states — including Ohio, Virginia, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which all count for more than a dozen votes — Obama has a narrow margin of support, according to most polls.
Despite the statistics and numbers, some say there’s still no predicting tomorrow’s results.
“I think anybody would be crazy to confidently predict how [the popular vote]’s going to go,” said Stuart Rothenberg, a journalist with The Rothenberg Political Report, on CBS’ Face the Nation yesterday.
Some news outlets have predicted a split between the popular vote and electoral votes. However, government and politics professor Stella Rouse said that result is unlikely.
“I think the possibility is pretty minimal,” she said. “It’s something the media likes to talk up because it creates drama.”
So far, polling averages indicate Romney is slightly favored to win North Carolina and Florida, a total of 44 votes.
Winning both states would give him 235 votes, with eight states still up in the air.
Of those states left up in the air, New Hampshire and Nevada are likely to go to Obama, according to most polls, and Obama is also up in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Romney would need huge final-day gains to close the gap.
If results play out as polls have suggested, four states would be left in play: Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and Colorado.
Obama, who would be only 13 electoral votes shy of 270, would need just Ohio or Virginia to clinch the win. He narrowly leads in all four states.
New York Times political statistician Nate Silver’s projections show Obama has an 85 percent chance of winning Ohio, which would decide the election.
Silver also says Obama has a 71 percent chance to win Virginia, as he leads in the majority of tracking polls in both states.
Despite dozens of polls over the past month, the race in Virginia has remained a toss-up until Election Day.
“I still think the Electoral College is easier for the president to get to 270,” Rotherberg said on Face the Nation yesterday.
“ It’s not impossible for Gov. Romney, but all the pieces have to fit together for him.”
With hours until the election, Romney faces a daunting uphill climb, no matter what the popular vote looks like.
“I would never say it’s a totally safe bet,” Rouse said. “I think [Obama] has the easier path to winning given the way the electoral map looks.”
However, Rouse said much could still change in the coming days.
“Anybody worth anything,” she said, “probably isn’t going to call the election for Obama at this point.”
