I am not convinced of Donald Trump’s sincerity. To this day, I firmly believe that Ashton Kutcher will gaze into the camera and declare that America has been “punk’d.” He will explain that he and other Hollywood producers have scripted every word of the Trump campaign to maximize media attention. He will reveal the campaign was based on a scientifically formulated and focus group-tested portfolio of statements that excited a targeted fan base while so severely appalling the majority that they could not turn away.
Trump himself will appear wearing a sombrero and announce a $100 million donation to help pay college tuition for undocumented immigrant students, while reminding viewers of his upcoming reality show. All will be well, and the year a billionaire bamboozled the whole country will go down as a historical footnote.
Perhaps I am wrong. Perhaps every unpleasant tweet, stump speech and debate comment has been genuine. Maybe an America that is “great again” really will only be open to the limited groups Trump approves of, and maybe there truly exists a significant portion of voters who will support Trump’s views. Even so, there is nothing to worry about as far as the nightmare scenario of Trump cackling from the White House balcony for four years.
It is true that on the surface, the Trump campaign is currently just about as healthy as it’s been since the start. Trump maintains a double-digit lead in all polls over Ted Cruz and other contenders. United Kingdom betting shops now have Trump with the highest odds of becoming the Republican nominee, taking the lead by a slim margin over Marco Rubio. Certainly, he has not run out of media coverage, whether on Fox News or elsewhere.
But there is a reason why politicians typically avoid making the type of outlandish statements that Trump has been making. His Gallup favorability ratings are off the charts, and not in a good way. Among Democrats, Trump’s net favorability rating is negative 70, and more importantly, negative 27 among independents. Meanwhile, Cruz and Rubio have net favorability ratings among independents of negative 3 and 4, respectively.
Because the number of registered Democrats outweighs the number of registered Republicans, a GOP contender must perform strongly among independents in order to win the general election. While these polls do fluctuate over time, it is difficult to imagine Trump’s negative 27 ever becoming positive. Most major polls have Hillary Clinton defeating Trump by a significant margin in head-to-head comparisons, while other GOP candidates are close to even with Clinton.
Thus, from a GOP perspective, a vote for Trump in the primaries is essentially a vote for Clinton in the general election. Trump leads the primaries due to his ability to generate excitement among a specific group of voters, which has a greater impact in primaries. However, the general election will be too broad for Trump to gain enough support. In an era of changing demographics, the Latino vote becomes more crucial as a deciding factor nationwide. Rather than pursuing these voters, he has alienated them to a comical degree. This might be a reason why some believe that Trump is acting as a double agent on behalf of Clinton.
From his infamous haircut to his vile sound bites, Trump suffers from extreme unfavorability. Seemingly, almost everyone who is not a Trump supporter dislikes him. This fervent base of support could win him the nomination only if voters don’t act strategically. However, the general election will not be kind to him. The true nature of Trump’s schtick is still not clear to me, but it matters not. Whether in the primaries or somehow not until Nov. 8, this charade will be forgotten in mere months.
Daniel Galitsky is a senior finance and government major. He can be reached at dgalitskydbk@gmail.com.
