Elected to see Hide and Seek rather than Hotel Rwanda? Well, don’t beat yourself up — you’ve already been punished enough (if you’ve seen Hide and Seek you know what I mean). With Sunday, Feb. 27, fast approaching, odds are you won’t catch all the Oscar picks you’ve been meaning to see.
But have no fear — in a year in which the only things certain are a Jamie Foxx acceptance speech and host Chris Rock dissing all the white people, here’s your guide for who will and who should take the hardware home on Oscar night.
Best Picture
Will Win — Million Dollar Baby
Should Win — Million Dollar Baby
Dark Horse Candidate — The Aviator
Talk about hitting your stride at just the right time — boxing tale Million Dollar Baby has capitalized on its late December release to build just enough momentum to pull off the late-round knockout. So who will be lying facedown on the canvas Sunday night? Only Martin Scorsese’s The Aviator and road-trip flick Sideways should be allowed in the same ring, let alone the same arena, as Clint Eastwood’s instant classic. At least Finding Neverland and Ray won’t have to pay for their ringside seats — both are nominated but have little upset potential.
Best Director
Will Win — Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby
Should Win — Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby
Dark Horse Candidate — Martin Scorsese for The Aviator
Any true Scorsese fan wants the legendary helmsman to win this award out of merit and not pity. If Gangs of New York, Scorsese’s last directorial nomination, has taught us anything, it’s the academy is waiting for four-time runner-up Scorsese to earn his golden statue. And so Eastwood, firmly establishing himself as the premier storyteller of the past 15 years, will swoop in and snag his second director’s trophy for his work on Million Dollar Baby (his first directing Oscar was for 1992 Best Picture Unforgiven). Alexander Payne has an outside shot at an upset for his careful direction of a wonderful cast in sentimental favorite Sideways. Taylor Hackford and Mike Leigh, directors of Ray and Vera Drake, respectively, need not prepare acceptance speeches.
Best Actor
Will Win — Jamie Foxx for Ray
Should Win — Jamie Foxx for Ray
Dark Horse Candidate— Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby
The only boring category of the night — it seems not even God can stop Ray’s Foxx from snagging this award for his dead-on portrayal of the late, head-weaving high priest of soul. Unexpected nominee Eastwood will get his fair share of votes as Million Dollar Baby, and in turn Eastwood’s performance, have picked up steam over the past month. The third nomination won’t be the charm for The Aviator’s Leonardo DiCaprio, whose rocky relationship with the academy has been well documented. Don Cheadle’s little-performance-that-could in Hotel Rwanda won’t be enough, and Johnny Depp’s undeserved, automatic nod for Finding Neverland proves sex appeal and hype can earn a nomination but not a statue.
Best Actress
Will Win — Hilary Swank for Million Dollar Baby
Should Win — Hilary Swank for Million Dollar Baby
Dark Horse Candidate — Annette Bening for Being Julia
A weak year for female performances, possibly stemming from the overabundance of male biopics, does not mean the lead actress category will not be competitive. Million Dollar Baby’s Swank should yet again steal the little golden guy from Being Julia’s Bening. (In 2000 Swank upset Bening, grabbing the trophy for Boys Don’t Cry.) But don’t be too surprised if a third-party candidate takes the prize, a la former Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura. Vera Drake’s Imelda Staunton and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind’s Kate Winslet could prove spoilers, while Catalina Sandino Moreno of Colombian flick Maria Full of Grace can only hope to win Joan Rivers’ best dressed.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win – Morgan Freeman for Million Dollar Baby
Should Win – Clive Owen for Closer
Dark Horse Candidate – Thomas Haden Church for Sideways
The other nominees dangle off Owen’s greatness like four ropes off the Goodyear Blimp. Yet Owen, whose breakthrough turn in Closer may nab him the coveted role as the next James Bond, may find himself applauding rather than taking the stroll toward the stage Sunday night. Freeman has yet to win an Oscar, and, with a more powerful vehicle (Million Dollar Baby) propelling him toward the finish line, the Hollywood veteran is the front-runner to win this hotly contested race. If Sideways musters up enough support we could see wingman Church reading an acceptance speech. The Aviator’s Alan Alda and Collateral’s Jamie Foxx have little chance of winning here — sorry Jamie, one per customer.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win — Virginia Madsen for Sideways
Should Win — Cate Blanchett for The Aviator
Dark Horse Candidate — Natalie Portman for Closer
You can make a case for each of the five nominees in this category. Though the critics’ love affair with Madsen’s tender performance in Sideways should propel her to an ever-so-slight victory, a case can be made that Blanchett was better. Her annoying-as-hell portrayal of the rather masculine Katharine Hepburn will have you believing in reincarnation. Closer’s Portman has been hyped by many as a favorite in this category, but, like Kate Winslet in years past, Portman’s age will work against her — academy voters know her best performances are still ahead of her. Hotel Rwanda’s Sophie Okonedo and Kinsey’s Laura Linney should not be happy just to be there — each can fully expect to hear her own name called.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win — Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor for Sideways
Should Win — Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor for Sideways
Dark Horse Candidate — Paul Haggis for Million Dollar Baby
The epitome of a two-horse race, Sideways should beat out Million Dollar Baby to take this award. Historically, screenplay categories are where the trendy, low-budget flicks get some recognition. When voters realize they haven’t marked down Sideways for much else, they will give it this award in lieu of Best Picture. The rest of the nominees, Before Sunset, Finding Neverland and The Motorcycle Diaries, have no shot at winning.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win — Charlie Kaufman for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Should Win — Charlie Kaufman for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Dark Horse Candidate — John Logan for The Aviator
At long last, the best and most eccentric screenwriter in the biz today, Kaufman, will snare an Oscar for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. There is a chance if The Aviator wins a boatload of awards a domino effect could give this screenplay award to Logan. Another very possible scenario could have the trophy going to The Incredibles writer/director Brad Bird — but what are the chances an animated film winning? Hotel Rwanda and Vera Drake: Thanks for showing up, guys.
