Take the word “bubble” out of the conversation. By virtue of its play during the past few weeks, the Terrapin men’s basketball team is going to the NCAA tournament.
Coach Gary Williams has not wanted to talk about the tournament or what it will take for his Terps to make it. Williams noted yesterday that his team hasn’t made it yet, but after the Terps’ 89-87 win against North Carolina Sunday night, there are fewer doubts than ever that they will make the tournament for the first time since 2004.
Other bubble teams – and even top-25 competitors – have fallen victim to upsets and have simply played poorly in recent weeks, and the Terps have looked more and more like a bona fide national contender. After considerable time spent worrying about whether the Terps will make the tournament, the focus now shifts to where they’ll be seeded on the bracket.
Much of that can be traced to the Terps’ robust Ratings Percentage Index and strength of schedule. Yesterday, the Terps were ranked No. 17 in the RPI and No. 12 in strength of schedule.
The Terps now have six wins against teams in the RPI’s top 50 and only one bad loss.
Jerry Palm, a college basketball analyst and bracket expert who operates CollegeRPI.com, said the Terps could be seeded anywhere from No. 2 to No. 9 or 10.
“They’re in and essentially playing for a pretty good seed, a top-25 kind of seed,” Palm said. “If they were to win out, you could be looking at a No. 2 or No. 3. If they do what they’re supposed to, which doesn’t mean beating Duke but winning [Saturday] and winning a couple games in the tournament, probably a No. 4 or 5.”
Citing the volatile nature of the entire bracket picture, Palm said the Terps could fall to the middle of the bracket if they lose out. In his most recent projection, Palm has the Terps as a No. 4 seed. ESPN.com bracket expert Joe Lunardi has the Terps as a No. 6 seed in his latest projection.
Beating then-No. 5 North Carolina certainly helped the Terps get to the point where players began believing they were in.
“It definitely puts us in a better situation,” senior guard Mike Jones said. “I think after [Florida State] we might’ve still been in it, but this game most likely sealed the deal.”
Sunday night exemplified a “signature win” for the No. 24-ranked Terps, as it marked a huge late-season upset, especially against North Carolina, whose RPI is ranked No. 3. Though the victory doesn’t have the weighty significance of a road win – the Terps have had plenty of those – senior guard D.J. Strawberry and his teammates made quite a national impression by outrebounding the Tar Heels and by erasing two double-digit deficits.
Just how big is this win?
“It was big,” Strawberry said. “A win over a top-five team, it just helps us so much. It helps our confidence a lot more. Everybody’s talking about how they’re a national championship contender. We can play with them.”
But even before the Terps shocked North Carolina, they were well on their way to the Big Dance more or less because different teams ahead of them have lost almost nightly. Within the ACC, competitors have fallen like rain. Florida State has lost five of its past six and tumbled. Remember when Clemson was 17-0 and the toast of the conference? The Tigers have gone 2-9 since.
North Carolina is no longer far and away the best team in the ACC, and Duke has been brought down to earth. The Terps have done their part, knocking off all four teams in the past week-and-a-half, but they have gotten some favorable bounces, too. Alabama, Air Force, Butler, BYU., Marquette and West Virginia are among teams who lost this past week, which could help the Terps’ NCAA tournament seeding.
Meanwhile, the Terps have sizzled. Reeling off five straight wins, they have even protected themselves against a sudden losing streak. While it is very unlikely that the Terps will lose all of their next three (against Duke, N.C. State and a bottom-of-the-barrel ACC opponent), they should still make the tournament without too much suspense.
That winning streak has raised the stakes and given new meaning to the team’s theme of not being satisfied.
“I think that we showed now it’s not about the tournament, now it’s going far in the tournament,” freshman guard Greivis Vasquez said. “We’re going to the tournament. I don’t think there is any doubt about that. But we’re not satisfied with that.”
Contact reporter Stephen Whyno at whynodbk@gmail.com.
