After a 65-52 loss at Michigan just two weeks ago, Maryland basketball is back in College Park to welcome the Wolverines to a sold out Xfinity Center on Sunday afternoon.
Ahead of the top-20 matchup, we once again caught up with Jacob Shames of The Michigan Daily. Our conversation has been edited lightly.
Michigan has lost two of its last five games and its first home game in a while against Michigan State. Although the Wolverines beat Maryland two weeks ago, where is this team compared to then?
I’d say Michigan is more or less the same as ever, at least compared to how they played against Maryland. They certainly didn’t play their best basketball during February, but even the Penn State loss looks somewhat defensible now. The Wolverines have pretty much just taken care of business the last two months. Sunday’s game and Michigan State on Saturday are going to tell us a lot about this team — can they win on the road against quality teams? The aphorism is that defense travels, and there aren’t really any issues on that end of the court. But I don’t think we’ve really learned anything new about Michigan in a while. This team is what it is, and if they stay out of foul trouble and hit the shots they should, that’d be a pretty big statement away from Crisler.
How good is Michigan without Charles Matthews playing against a good opponent on the road in Maryland? How does his potential to not be in Sunday’s lineup affect the game plan for the Wolverines?
Honestly, who knows?
Senior Night against Nebraska was kind of a wash — Michigan was pretty clearly on a different level mentally, geared up to bounce back after laying an egg in the second half against the Spartans, and the Huskers have been playing like a team that knows their season’s over. So it’s hard for me to read too much into that game. If Matthews plays, he certainly won’t be at 100 percent, but if he doesn’t play (he’s a game-time decision against Maryland, and was wearing a boot on his foot on Thursday) there are a ton of questions.
Matchup-wise, I’d have to think Michigan could survive Matthews not playing if the only implication was Matthews not playing. He’s never been a particularly efficient offensive player, and while he is maybe the best perimeter defender in the Big Ten, the Terrapins don’t have a big-time scoring threat on the wing. It’s what the absence of Matthews does for the rest of the team. Isaiah Livers would end up starting, and with him being a 44 percent 3-point shooter, Michigan’s starting 5 is probably better offensively. I’d expect to see more ball movement and a more perimeter-focused attack than usual. And while Livers isn’t at Matthews’ level on defense, he’s a plus defender at multiple positions so the Wolverines won’t lose much there in this matchup.
But what they do lose is depth: Livers is an outstanding sixth man, and if he’s being asked to chase guys around on the perimeter for 30 minutes he won’t be able to spell Jon Teske at center in a game where Livers’ outside game really could be a mismatch for Maryland’s bigs. That means it will be a huge test for either Brandon Johns or Colin Castleton in the post. Both freshmen have shown potential at times, but are they ready to take on Bruno Fernando and Jalen Smith? Long story short — it’s going to come down to young guys like Johns, Castleton and David DeJulius, who has moved into the backup PG/sometimes backup SG role recently. The Wolverines were already very thin, and now either those guys are going to have to step up or every starter will need to play 30-35 minutes.
Michigan still has Michigan State on the schedule next. How up for Sunday’s game do you think the team will be, or do you think that this game will hit them hard after a comfortable home win against Nebraska?
Opponent notwithstanding, the Nebraska game was Michigan’s best performance since … December? They haven’t been that dialed in on both ends of the court in a while. I don’t think there’s any risk of a letdown from Thursday or overlooking Maryland for Michigan State — Michigan still is in the race for a Big Ten regular season title, no matter how thin their chances are right now, and this would be their most impressive road win of the season. Traditionally, John Beilein teams seem to start off slow and really gel in late February/March. This isn’t a traditional Beilein team in that regard, but maybe we start to see some of that Sunday.
Michigan will win if…
Essentially what I wrote to answer the second question. Either Johns or Castleton or DeJulius or all three play above their years, or Michigan stays out of foul trouble.
Maryland will win if…
No matter how well Michigan’s young guys step up … if someone not named Jon Teske is guarding Fernando for any significant length of time, that’s not good news for the Wolverines.